歌词
All informed predictions of future performance are based upon some knowledge of relevant past performance: school grades, research productivity, sales records, or whatever is appropriate. How well the predictions will be validated by later performance depends upon the amount, reliability, and appropriateness of the information used and on the skill and wisdom with which it is interpreted. Anyone who keeps careful score knows that the information available is always incomplete and that the predictions are always subject to error.
所有已知的对将来行为的预测都是基于对过去某些相关经验的了解的基础之上的：学校成绩、科研生产力、销售业绩，或诸如此类。这些预测在多大程度上被后来的表现证实，这取决于被采用信息的数量、可靠性和适宜性以及解释这些信息的技能和才智。任何仔细记分的人都知道可用的信息总是不完整的，预测总是容易出现错误。